2020 Portuguese Grand Prix Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief

Words by showstopperNL and layres3

Links

• Free Practice 1 Results
• Free Practice 2 Results
• FIA Documents for the Portugal GP

Live Session Discussion Threads

• Free Practice 1 Discussion Thread
• Free Practice 2 Discussion Thread

ICYMI

Haas Has Openings

Silly Season 2020 continues, this time blowing up the only USA team on the grid. Haas has decided to part ways with both of their long-time drivers Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen. Team Principal Guenther Steiner, ever the honest lad, cites financial reasons for ending their collaboration with the two drivers.
With any open seats, rumors swirl on who may fill them, including both young and experienced options.
On the younger side, the Ferrari Academy drivers in contention for the Formula 2 championship - Callum Ilott and Mick Schumacher - and Russian F2 driver Nikita Mazepin seem to be the front-runners with Sergio Pérez and Nico Hülkenberg still stalking about for a drive in Formula 1 next year.
As for Grosjean and Magnussen, what is next? Obviously, both will want to return to the F1 grid but with open seats a rare commodity now, it seems more likely they drive in another series next season. Grosjean has Le Mans experience and is very interested in Peugeot’s new Le Mans hypercar program (bonus points for being French), while Magnussen looks poised to drive in an USA based race series - his father raced Corvettes in IMSA/Le Mans GT cars for several years - in either IndyCar or endurance racing.

Racing Point and COVID-19

For the second time this year, we have confirmation that a Racing Point driver has contracted COVID-19.
Remember the kerfuffle of Nico Hülkenberg driving his Porsche in record time down to the Nürburgring to fill in for an “ill” Lance Stroll? Turns out Stroll did test positive for coronavirus after the race weekend.
Stroll has since recovered and tested negative for COVID-19 several times since the Eifel GP, but this situation with a late report of a positive coronavirus case raises questions for both Racing Point and Formula 1’s testing and reporting policies. Other players in the paddock have taken notice and want to make sure that testing does not lapse down the backstretch of the season.
Worth noting: we have made it through 11 race weekends in 8 different countries with no major drama surrounding the coronavirus and Formula 1 seems to have handled the pandemic better than most international sports.
Not a reason to slow testing or lose vigilance, but great news for the sport and a testament to the professionalism of Formula 1 top to bottom personnel.

History in the Making

This weekend, Lewis Hamilton races for the record. At the Eifel GP two weeks ago, Hamilton’s win tied Michael Schumacher’s long-standing record of 91 race wins. Mercedes, as with the rest of the season, is the clear favorite going into the weekend and Hamilton is on red-hot form - even though Bottas will be looking to spoil his pairt, it is a good bet Hamilton overtakes Schumacher in the record book to become the winningest Formula 1 driver of all time on Sunday.
If you missed the end of the race in Germany, check out this very emotional “tip-of-the-cap” moment between Hamilton and Mick Schumacher.

Track and Tech Talk

For the second time this season, Formula 1 races a circuit for the very first time.
This time around we visit the Autodrómo International do Algarve in the southwest corner of Portugal, just a quick drive from Portimão. The circuit offers new challenges for the drivers and could lead to some exciting racing over the weekend. The current outright lap record is held by the 2010 Peugeot LMP1, so a new lap record is likely to be set tomorrow during qualifying.
The track is a roller coaster, with several short, steep inclines and declines. The start-finish straight is on a bit of plateau and the “infield” section features several downhill braking zones, increasing lock up risk, particularly into Turn 5 after the short back straight.
Combine hills with a slippery new track surface, recently resurfaced by management, and the hardest possible set of Pirellis, and this morning’s Free Practice 1 was set to be a slippery one.
Bonus points to this cameraman this week. Thank you for taking us the behind the scenes.
And, our good friend Bernd Mayländer offered some thrills as well, showing exactly how the Stewards will be watching track limits.
Several drivers lost their lap times at the exit Turn 4 as they tried to find early pace onto the short straight. The hairpin at Turn 5 is also under scrutiny this weekend. It is hard to see the elevation changes at times, so here is a great look at the whole track from the broadcast helicopter.
As we approach the end of the season, several teams have already moved on to their 2021 car development, notably Mercedes. Team Principal Toto Wolff shared that, due to the rules changes for 2021, Mercedes has long finished their performance upgrades and looks to next year’s car.
Lastly, 8 of the 10 teams have new power unit elements this weekend. At this point, every car on the grid is carrying at least some final parts for the season - replacements now almost certainly mean grid penalties so look for teams to get as much mileage as possible to the end of the season.

Free Practice 1

The first-ever practice session at Portimão proved to be a tricky one for many, at times looking more like Tokyo Drift than F1, the track being very green. Carlos Sainz was the first to find out how much, as the Spaniard slid all over the place on his first couple of laps, saying on his team radio: “There is just no grip.”
A few moments later Max Verstappen fell victim to the lack of grip, the Dutch driver spinning as he came out of Turn 4, the Red Bull quickly back on his way. A couple of minutes later, Charles Leclerc suffered a small tankslapper, but managed to get his rear wheels out of the gravel trap.
The drivers made sure to test the track limit sensors in this session as a whopping 65 laps were deleted. Track limits at Portimão are enforced at Turns 1, 4 & 15.
At the end of the session, Valtteri Bottas topped the timing charts followed by his usual Top 3 companions. Slight concerns arose when Esteban Ocon saw his Renault smoking heavily at the drop of the checkered flag. The team later confirmed that an oil leak caused the smoke and there are no concerns for the next sessions.

Free Practice 2

After lunch, Pirelli had their chance to shine in the Portuguese sun. The first 30 minutes of the practice session were dedicated to testing new 2021 tire compounds (with sleek black lettering). Pirelli tested several compounds on different cars to determine the C1 (hardest) tire for next season. Drivers complained about lack of grip for the entire test period but the test was mandatory, under authority of the FIA, so the teams just had to deal until they finished their mandatory laps.
After 30 minutes, teams started their usual programmes, but they could not get into a good rhythm, as the last hour of practice was incident packed. With 45 minutes remaining, we see huge flames rise from the AlphaToastyAlphaTauri of Pierre Gasly. Marshals ran towards the burning car and quickly put out the flames, but the damage appeared extensive. We are waiting more information but all signs point to a Power Unit related issue, either turbocharger or exhaust or oil leakage. We will update in the comments as we learn more.
It took some time to clean up the mess from Gasly’s fire, but when the session did restart it only lasted for a short span before another incident. Again, as we have seen often this season, Max Verstappen seemed really agitated during free practice. First, he cursed out Sainz for overtaking him and eventually his frustration culminated in Lance Stroll and Verstappen colliding in as both turned in for Turn 1. Both drivers were summoned to the Stewards room but decision has been that no further action is warranted.
After Stroll’s Racing Point was taken out of the gravel trap, there were less than 10 minutes remaining and nobody was able to put in a solid run. When the flag dropped, Bottas again topped the session. While the overall timing sheet is not representative for the rest of the weekend, especially after the red flags, it is nice to see McLaren and Ferrari near the top of the sheets.
The rest of the weekend will be very interesting. Tomorrow will be a tense day for teams hoping to make it into Q3, with track limits an ever present danger. Drivers will have to reach the very limit of the track and their car, but if they go over that edge, their time will be deleted and we have seen front-runners getting in trouble because of it, most recently in Russia with Lewis Hamilton.

Predictions for Tomorrow

layres3
Look out for the McLaren lads tomorrow in qualifying. Norris and Sainz finished Free Practice 2 in P3 and P5 on quick last minute one-lap runs after the red flag for Stroll’s car. With Renault and Racing Point looking slower this week, I see the orange cars qualifying very competitively: P4 and P7.
showstopperNL
I’m expecting big things from Renault again. While it isn’t obvious looking at today’s practice i’ve been really impressed at their progress this season. If they can control their reliability, mainly for Ocon, I can see them finishing in a solid best of the rest position.
Join us right here tomorrow for FP3 and Qualifying!

Hello, I'm Reikai_, Grand Champion in Rocket League (3v3) and a previous mid-Master League player in Starcraft 2. This guide contains is the most comprehensive approach to get you to Grand Champion in 3v3 quickly on the subreddit to date.
I used mental models (in particular, frequency, detailed later) as well as previous comprehensive posts to rank myself up. Now, I'd like to give back and help others rank up, especially with Rocket League now going free-to-play.

Goal setting

I imagine since you're reading this post, you'd like to make it to Grand Champion. I think that's a great goal at 0.77% of the player base. However, I've noticed that when people try to get better at anything (RL included), there tends to be a gap in goals and practice.
Do you want to be the flashiest, fanciest player possible? Then practice Air Dribble and it's variants (Flip Reset, Musty Flick, Double Tap) the whole time, and then head to 1v1. You can't even get to GC in 3v3 doing this, I think. Your skillset would be too lopsided and/or unbalanced.
Do you want to be the best player you can be? Then practice becoming skilled and comfortable in all phases of the 3v3 game. Currently, the best players for 3v3 are the pros playing 3v3. They're the ones pushing the boundaries and showing the best possible way to play 3v3 at any given moment.
By trying to be as good as possible, you'll improve much faster than saying, 'What can a player do that's 1 rank above mine?' You'll skip over lots of stop-gap, waste-of-time skills and go straight to what the pros are doing. The essential skills that is, not the flashy ones. More below on that when I explain Frequency.

Watching Pro Games

Speaking of pros, watch the best current pros you can possibly find. Replays, Youtube, and past stream videos are all excellent sources of material. Old replays actually aren't that good because this game has evolved so much. For example, going back too far in RLCS (the Rocket League pro scene) and you get pros that aren't even as good as some 'average joes' today. You also want RLCS matches, or 'tryhard' games, where a streamer isn't necessarily just screwing around. If there's money on the line or the pro is playing with their team, you can almost bet that the pro will be trying his/her hardest and showing you the best stuff.
Another reason you want to watch pros: Their gameplay is -packed- with 2 lists. The first list is full of things you MUST do (score goals, pressure the other team, be in position, etc.). The second list is full of things you should NEVER do (concede goals, play slow, be out of position, etc.). Watching pros constantly and picking up those patterns of what to do and where is crucial, and there's no place that happens faster than going straight to the source. For example, watching a content creator's Rocket League youtube will give you a new concept, but seeing that concept implemented (close to) perfectly really only happens in pro matches. Here's a link to the replays from the latest RLCS season (#9): RLCS Season 9 Both NA and EU are good, but I'd say NA is ahead right now. Start with them.
Bottom line, find your favorite RLCS pro who's style inspires you and try copying what they do (decisions they make, mainly).

Improvement Mindset

This, along with dedication to spend time improving are the big, overarching themes that need to be in place for you to make it Grand Champion. If you embark on this path, you need to know that you will -not- be the same player at the end that you are at the start. You need to embrace that and be willing to destroy/remove your old ideas of how to play the game. This will make room for the new (Grand Champion-level) ones.
Aspects of this mindset:

* I will learn the best way to perform the skill in question. * If there is a better way, I'll use my old method while practicing using the new method in training. * Once I feel confident to perform the new skill in ranked, I will use only the new method and completely abandon the old method. * I take my information from the best sources available, and critically think about any secondary sources (non-pros, content creators). * I will take no excuses from myself as to why I 'can't' perform a certain skill. Someone else did it, so therefore I can too. 

Common mistakes that stop you from improving:

* Being tilted or upset at something, whether that's in the game or outside of it. * Thinking you're trying to improve, but actually staying in your comfort zone and simply pushing your current skills to current limits * Not pushing yourself beyond current limits and getting uncomfortable * Letting your brain quietly switch out goals when you get impatient * Gunning for the next rank NOW instead of just trying to improve, even if that means losing as you try a new skill * Getting convinced somehow improvement isn't worth it because of some external factor * Bad teammates, matchmaking 'errors', other excuses * Not dedicating enough time/energy/effort to this. * Not a total showstopper, but will slow you down. * If you don't have a lot of time with the game, simply make sure you focus and actually improve. You'll still see results. 

Frequency, or what ideas at the Grand Champion level are actually the most important?

Frequency means, what gets used the most at the level you're trying to achieve? What concepts are game breakingly advantageous, and which ones don't really matter at all? Which skills are a total must-learn, and which ones can you let slide for now, and come back for later? In order to improve quickly, pick the most important skills to learn first and spend most of your time on.

2 quick definitions:

Jumpshot means some combination of jumping, boosting, and dodging into the ball. It doesn't always mean as hard as you can, but rather making the ball do what you want. In a lot of places, it's known as 'power shot', but Jumpshot includes the less powerful, more accurate version. This Kevpert tutorial has the shooting version, but you should play around with it. See how long you can hold the jump, how fast you can do it, try it off the wall, combine it with air roll, etc.
Fast Aerial is the fastest possible double jump aerial variant with regards to gaining altitude quickly. If you're wondering, there are 3 total double jump aerial variants, and all 3 are good. See this Kevpert Tutorial. I'm mainly referring to the 3rd variant, but all 3 are good for different scenarios. You'd use this to beat your opponent to a ball that's higher up than a Jumpshot could reach. Make no mistake, a Jumpshot can reach a ball slightly higher than the crossbar (with dodge!).
Mechanics

* A (Essential) * Jumpshot * Fast Aerial * Reading the bounce from any and all walls, and being able to play it * This is a great use of freeplay, if you were wondering what you should do in there. * Use the D-pad with BakkesMod installed to practice random scenarios. * Powerslide (correct powerslide, not the incorrect tutorial version.) * B (Good to add in, but not at the expense of above) * Recovery (not landing on your head, not landing sideways and stopping) * Expert boost management * You need less than you think; 33 + 1 pad (12) = 45 boost can almost reach the ceiling with Fast Aerial! * Dribbling or flicking * C (Extra stuff) * Air Dribble * Flip Reset * Musty Flick * Etc. 

Strategy

* A (Essential) * Prediction * What's probably going to happen next? * Is there a shot opportunity for us? For them? * Remember, unless the ball is on target already, only an opponent car can score your goal. Look for the shooter. * Who's car is closest to the ball? * What team has better position right now? What should I prepare for? * Positioning * Understand rotation, especially back post rotations (See the guide below in Training Material) * Knowing to make saves by starting on the back post and not in the middle * Know where to be to score easily/find shooting opportunities easily * Use the camera to see where your teammates are to know what to do/where to go * Understanding when to challenge and when not to challenge * Be aware of what each position should be primarily and secondarily concerned with * I may write up a guide on this too if there's enough interest, it's somewhat deep * B (Good to add in, but not at the expense of above) * Adapting to the game you're playing * Did your teammate cut rotation? Fill the last position. * Is the other team too aggressive? Punish them with power clears (Jumpshots aimed deep into your opponents half, preferably on target to the goal). * Is your team too aggressive? Play third man and babysit the match on defense to win. * Is there a weak player in the match? Can you gamble and make a challenge on that player? It might be a goal. * Playing to the scoreboard/time remaining * Don't challenge as 3rd man if you're up 1-0 and there's 30 seconds left, stall and delay and let your teammates help. Only make a save if necessary. * If you're down by 2, start getting aggressive now. Don't forget to actually try the skill you were working on! * C (Extra stuff) * Boost stealing/demoing/bumping (Only do this stuff opportunistically. The other points above are so much more important.) 

Mental

* A (Essential) * Focus/Effort/Trying as hard as you can * Avoiding at all costs being mentally lazy for the duration of the match. * Actively trying to win the game and improve in the same match. * More on balancing these two mindsets below in Competitive Mindset. * Thinking of the right thing at the right time * Think of the next ball in the match, and watch the replay after. * Don't think of the ball you just missed now! You'll miss the next one. * B (Good to add in, but not at the expense of above) * Never giving up/always doing something with the current match * Sometimes, at 1-5, there's a reason to forfeit, but you don't have to. You can use the rest of the match to practice. * However, at 1-3, go for it and try to win. * C (Extra stuff) * Keeping your teammates pumped up with compliments/jokes 

Mechanics Explanation

Why are Jumpshot and Fast Aerial listed first in mechanics? Because they are the 2 most used mechanics in the game when it comes to playing the ball. Most goals in GC aren't great goals. Most are mistake punishing or loose ball opportunity recognition. Usually you don't pick up the ball, grab 100 boost and clip on your opponent. At the same time, the save is usually also made using these two skills. Either the ball is reachable with Jumpshot, or it's high up and you Fast Aerial.
The target is different, but each mechanic is about the same: reach the ball before you opponent and hit it where you want. To the goal for offense, into the corners (which makes the ball temporarily unshootable due to angle) or ceiling in the opponent's half on defense. Same with 50/50s; you generally Jumpshot the other car as hard as you can (there are exceptions to this). Same with power clears used to build up your team's attack or relieve pressure; it's generally a Jumpshot focused on power.
Still not convinced?
If you're still not sure that most goals in Grand Champion are boring goals, consider this evidence. I went back and rewatched the last 10 games that I played to get GC. I counted the goals that were scored (both mine and opponents).

 * Total of 54 goals scored. 66.7% of goals scored were Jumpshots, usually from the ground, usually front bumper (it's an easier version than the air roll shot). * 25.9% of goals scored were Fast Aerial, and usually resulted from a ball off the backboard or a floating midfield ball. * Only 7.4% of the goals used another mechanic other than Jumpshot or Fast Aerial. * On top of that, only 4 out of 54 goals scored had 'quality' to them, or made me go, 'wow, that was a great goal.' * The rest? 92.6%, or 50 out of 54 goals were some type of tap in, long shot, or defensive mistake. Something preventable. 

Given the above, we can make a few takeaways.

 * Jumpshot and Fast Aerial are the 2 most frequently used mechanics in Rocket League. * Thus, we should practice those the most given we'd get the most mileage out of them. * Other things can and should be practiced, and even along side the above, but the majority of practice time should go to those 2 until mastered. * Practice fun shots if it keeps you inspired (I practiced flip resets and double taps when I started feeling bored or stuck) * The number of 'lame' or 'non-wow' goals means that defense is -sorely- lacking at ALL levels. * Focus on your defensive predictions and backpost rotations and you should see a jump in your win rate. * Getting the ball up on your opponents backboard is an easy way to score goals. It causes all sorts of havoc to their formation. * Grand Champion is mainly speed and consistency: Being able to shoot the ball hard and on target will get you goals, period. * Predicting these hits from opponents is the defensive flipside of this. 

Strategy Explanation

Why is Prediction and Positioning #1 and #2 on the list above? That's because 87.0% or 47/54 goals scored had some type of prediction/positioning element to help the goalscorer. The player who scored was either predicting that a loose ball might pop up or sitting in a position to score while another car covered the goal.
Bottom line, you want to be constantly thinking about all the possibilities of what could happen in a current situation. Cover first the ones that are risky to your team (losing a 50/50), but also position to take advantage of that same 50/50 going your way.
Data/spreadsheet: Reikai_'s GC Goal Histogram
10 GC Reward games: Reikai_'s 10 GC Reward Replays (Once downloaded, put them in this folder (your equivalent) to watch them: C:\Users\reikai!\Documents\My Games\Rocket League\TAGame\Demos)

Learn new concepts for fun

Here's a exhaustive list of most mechanics in the game from milesAKAkilometers. Most are more flashy or showy. Use this list to learn something fun when you get stuck or get bored (but don't shirk your real practice, lest you lose progress). Real practice defined here as the A and B list items detailed above.

Training + Practice + Implementation

Download BakkesMod. This allows you to skip around training packs, mirror shots left to right, and have free play ball commands. This allows you to practice custom training shots from different angles and quickly practice what you want to practice without wasting time.
Implementing a skill basically follows this cycle:

* Discovery of that skill * Training/workshop attempts, then success * Freeplay or Unranked game attempts, then success * Ranked attempts, then success 

Most importantly, you should be pushing to do that skill in the most pro form possible. Shots are taken as hard and fast as possible. Aerials are done as quickly as possible. Saves are as shooting-angle-deleting as possible, and as far from your goal as possible.
Once you can do something in freeplay or training to a consistent level, go try it in ranked. For Jumpshot and Fast Aerial, I practiced shooting consistency by making 3 shots in a row before moving to the next shot. You'll probably start off by just making one, and not making it full speed. That's OK. Just keep pushing for better every time.
I list 3-shot consistency for my training because that's what it took for me to make Grand Champion. Even if you can't do that, stressing yourself to do that will make every ball you deal with at your rank feel and look easy. If you don't want to be too stressed, feel free to choose a lesser consistency (2-shot or something). Just know you'll have to probably up it later.

Training Material

I sifted through tons of training packs and Workshop maps looking for the ones that would make a big difference in my game. After looking through all of those, here is a short list of the ones that were most impactful for me. Practice these exhaustively and you'll see a significant difference in your game as well.

Custom Training (Main menu, go to training, custom training, then copy these codes in):

* Shooting #1, WayProtein: 4912-A5C9-9A56-555D (3 shot consistency) * Shooting #2, Biddles: 27FE-E3D7-7FB5-7F43 (3 shot consistency) * Shooting #3, Sebbl: 7656-D60E-ED55-FF20 (even higher level pack, did not finish) * Goalkeeping, WayProtein: 776F-E2BB-2993-78D7 (3 save consistency) * Backboard reads, Rizzo (G2 pro): 07E1-81BC-DD2E-BF8C (3 save consistency, 1 exception) * Wall shots, Poquito: 9F6D-4387-4C57-2E4B (3 shot or pass consistency) 

Workshop (PC only) (Click these links and subscribe with your steam account. Then, main menu, extras, workshop.):

• Dribbling/first touch control (Glass Wheels Digby): https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1694288506
• Car control in the air (Dreale): https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=821751580 (specifically level 1.11, slalom)
  • Kevpert tutorial to go with this map.
  • If you want to practice car control and are not on PC, he has drills for non-PC in freeplay.

Miscellaneous links:

• Jumpshot/Long Shot/Air Roll by Kevpert (Same as above)
• Defense by Kevpert
• Rotation guide by Virge
• Setting guide by Ungoliant0
  
  • "The important part is that you should not be hindered by your controls." - Ungoliant
  • "But once they're set and you're pretty happy with them, don't continuously change them either." - reikai

Watch your replays, reflect and learn

Right after a ranked match, open the replay while the match is still fresh in your mind. I used to think that my teammates were often to blame when I lost, but here is where I found I usually made just as many mistakes as they did. You don't have to watch the whole match, but make sure to pick out mistakes you made, and think of a plan right then and there of what you'll do next time to fix this. Otherwise, you'll tend to end up in next match's replay, going, 'yep, there's the same mistake...'.
Reflecting like this is key; your decision making actually may never improve without looking at what you're doing wrong and changing that decision.
Something strange you may find: doing the right thing feels weird, but doing the wrong thing feels 'right' since it's habit. Thus, most improvements will feel strange at first.

Competitive Mindset + Improvement Mindset

This is the mentality you need to play ranked when you want to improve, and is basically it's own skill. It's the drive to win and fight as hard as you possibly can. To give you an idea of what it's all about:

* Play games with the mindset of turning the game into a 5-0 blowout. * Salivate at the chance to score or pass to a teammate so they score. * Sweat blood saving goals for your team. * A 50/50 is a chance to hit your opponent so hard they feel scared the next time you approach them. * You want to make them scared to ever play against you again. * You want them to be relieved when you're on their team and not against them. 

Ok, what's wrong with the above? The improvement portion is missing. The majority of the time, this Competitive Mindset is where you are probably about 75% of the game. The remainder is where you implement the mechanics you learned and trained above, for about 25% of the game.
Change the percentages to what you feel is right. Just know that too much Competitive Mindset means no improvement, and too much Improvement Mindset means frustration and losses.
A bit more on this; this is only how you're playing. Never be toxic to anyone, teammates or opponents. That only makes your opponents play harder and your teammates play worse. Even worse than that, you're basically tilting yourself. Admit fault when it's your fault and try harder next match. Praise teammates when they do well, and say Sorry! when you mess up. It happens.
Alternatively, you can just turn off quick chat entirely (it's in the pause menu settings). This helped me a lot, as it didn't do much for me to see 'Nice shot!' when I scored as much as it hurt to see 'What a save!' when I missed.

General Tip Log

This is an accumulation of random things that dramatically helped me once I implemented each tip. Try your best to implement all of these one at a time. The closer you get to Grand Champion, the more people adhere to these ideas (and their exceptions). This list is intended for you to get instant value out of reading this post.

* If your opponent is closer to the ball than you, don't challenge him. You'll get beat. * If you're the first car in rotation, you can be more aggressive and consider (fake) challenging. * If you're the last car in rotation, and you know you have no help coming, you can either challenge or wait. * The lower rank you're in, the more you want to wait, as people's consistency just isn't there yet. * Higher ranks you just want to challenge because more time and space means a more likely good shot on your goal. * Try not to jump unless you have to; you have much more control on the ground. That being said, don't avoid jumping if that's easier. * For 50/50s, you basically always have to jump and dodge into them. *As you get better, you want to be doing the skills as fast, hard, and accurately as humanly possible 100% of the time. * Strive for that, but know that literal 100% is impossible. Even pros are probably 95% or so. * Further refinement of an old skill (particularly a key skill) can be more important than learning a new one. * If your teammate is cutting rotation/not following it, it's up to you to adapt and play to HIS game. * No way you can force him to play better by taking his ball and making him mad. * You have a higher winrate if your teammates are playing their A-game rather than you taking them out of their A-game, even if their A-game is subpar. * Stay in prediction/positioning mode until it's your turn to hit the ball, and then switch all of your focus over to nailing that mechanic. Then switch back. * Being adamant here will prevent silly mistakes like looking at other cars when you have a free ball to score. * Never, never, never give up on your own improvement. You can and will improve, but it will take time, and in the short run you can lose rank. * If you remove a bad habit or crutch from your play, it's possible you DERANK instead of improve. That's because the crutch is gone. * As you stick to the new skill, you'll re-rank up, and probably beyond that as the new skill is better for a reason. * It takes a while to integrate new skills into your play, even if you can nail them in training. * You're just not used to using your new, shiny, butt-kicking skill yet. * Dealing with tilt: avoid getting tilted as much as possible * Tilt is a mindset where the emotional part of you is currently stronger than the logical/improvement part. * If you're tilted, chances are no improvement is happening. * Take a break or distract yourself to make the negative emotions subside, then come back once you're positive (or at least neutral) and focused. * Zoning out: don't do it * While grinding mechanics, you may find that you're hitting the same shot 1,000 times and it never goes in. * You've zoned out, and need to refocus/reflect on what's going on. What is your car currently doing? What needs to happen instead? * Sitting there and thinking about what went wrong is much more helpful than doing the shot wrong another 1,000 times * Not to mention building bad habits/wrong muscle memory * Reflection is key; no improvement can happen without it. 

A comprehensive improvement plan so you can put all of this together

* Spend 30%-50% of the time training the A and B list mechanics above (75%/25% split), and do this at the beginning when you're fresh. * Don't do more than an hour of mechanics at a time. * Ranked: Play 5 games, reviewing the replay immediately after each one. * This will decrease chances of tilting and improve odds of reflection/adjustment/improving. * Once that 5 is finished, take some kind of break for 5-10 minutes. * If you're concentrating on improving, 25 minutes of ranked + replay analysis should wear you out. * Do as many 5 game sets as time allows or you have patience for, and don't be afraid to call it quits and go back to mechanics. 

Reasoning for a training plan like this:

* Mechanics are something that have to be improved over time. Never skip mechanics, as you can't make up the muscle memory later like you can decision making. * If you'd like to watch pros or think about/review your training plan, take time out of ranked, not mechanics. * Ranked is basically for implementing what you already know. You're converting the mechanics training you did previously into a higher rank. * Consider drastically changing any previous training plans you had, including this one. * If it's not working for you, switch, but only after giving it a good shot (at least 5-10 sessions to see if you don't see improvement). 

References

Older GC Post by inthedark72 How to Improve by Ver

TL;DR:

I spent about 1,100 hours getting to Diamond and just having fun. I spent another 1,000 hours intentionally improving to Grand Champion. If you take your improvement seriously, I believe you too can make Grand Champion and join the top 0.77% of the player base. Learn from this post and take your improvement seriously and it shouldn't take you as long as it did me. Why? That's because you're using the best drills and most frequently used mechanics, guided by the pro scene from the start.

* Building a learning road map from this post, taking insight from your favorite pro * Objectively looking at what you should work on (what are you bad at?) * Doing difficult things constantly and repeatedly exiting your comfort zone * Implementing the new mechanic in Ranked and not falling back to old habits and mistakes * Reflect every chance you get (ranked replays, pro matches, in training). * Only when you change your thinking do you ever improve. 

Please let me know any questions/comments/concerns you have on this document; I'd be happy to answer in the comments below. Is there interest in a Completely New Player's Guide? What about that question on your mind right now? :D

Road to Grand Champion, 2v2?

While making Grand Champion in 3v3, I thought some people might be interested in watching a Road to Grand Champion for 2v2. I decided to stream to answer in depth questions about this post and 3v3 in general and see if I can't repeat it for 2v2. I currently plan on streaming Monday/Wednesday/Friday at 2PM-5PM Central Time, putting these concepts into action.
If you click the stream link below, it has my schedule in YOUR time zone so you don't have to convert. Hope to see you there!
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Reikai_'s Stream Link
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Note: I did get mod permission before posting my link, so please ask them if you're thinking about posting. Thanks for reading!

The Berzerker Guide: Fast and Frenzied

A Guide by QueueKaye and LimbLegion

Sections

• Basics (Attack speed, movelist, etc.)
  
• Feat and Perk selection
  
• Theory and Execution, playing 1v1s
  
• Your place in 4v4s
  
• Your Match-ups (Simplified)
  
• Fighting With Berzerker
  
• Closing Thoughts
  

Hello again friends, and welcome to a nice little bloodsoaked Berzerker guide. Today, I, LimbLegion will be your host.
Most people who know me know that Berserker is the character I have played most, am best at, and have played at basically every level of play up to and including small-time tournament gameplay. I feel confident enough to give you this guide, something I wanted to do much earlier on than now, but alas, circumstances prevented me from doing so. I hope it will find you carving a path of blood and bones.

The Basics

Berzerker

Stat	Answer
Class	Assassin
Health	120*
Stamina	140***
Guard Type	Reflex
Default Guard Direction	Right
Off Target Enhanced Attacks	Yes
Sprint Speed	7m/s
Lock on Speed	1.75m/s F, 2.25m/s S, 1.25m/s B
Forward Dodge Recovery	600ms**
Chains	Special^

*Below average
**Average
***Above Average
^ Specific chains with special manipulation
CHAINS:
Dance of the Paired Blades: L, H - Infinite
Dance of the Paired Blades Alternate: H, L - Infinite
Bear Mauler: H, H, H - Three side heavies in a row
Side and Top heavy finishers are unblockable.
After a feint or the first attack, Berserker's chains become uninterruptible after 100ms.
Can chain infinitely between lights and side heavies.
Any attack can chain into a top heavy unblockable to end the chain.
Can enter into Bear Mauler chain with a side heavy after any side heavy. Bear Mauler can finish with a top or side heavy.
Special Properties

1. Side light after feint is 400ms. Top light after feint is 500ms. As previously listed, they are also uninterruptible after 100ms.
   
2. Can soft feint Heavy Openers with a dodge 400ms before impact. This allows for deflect baits and other option selects.
   
3. Speed increase and hyperarmour of post-feint attacks lasts for up to ~367ms after the feint.
   
4. Can cancel recovery of any missed attack into a dodge or zone, with the exception of Head Slicer, Spin Chop, Normal Zone and Slashing Rush/Back Zone.
   
5. Berserker's deflect is a guard break, it follows the exact same rules as any GB, but beats hyper armour and interrupts ANY action currently in progress. Even opponents who are in Revenge or Uninterruptible stance.
   
6. Spin Chop is undodgeable.
   
7. Head Slicer gains Uninterruptible after 100ms and can be used 100-400ms into a dodge.
   
8. Head Crusher gains uninterruptible after 400ms and can be used 200-400ms into a dodge. When used against opponents who are running away, it will begin with a long sprinting animation that attempts to catch up to the target.
   
9. Slashing Rush is unparriable after the first hit. The third hit guarantees a chain light on hit, but on block guarantees that your light will be auto-blocked.
   
10. After a Zone attack lands on hit, a chain light attack has an exactly one frame parry window (16ms).
    

Offensive Tools
Offensive:

• Berserker has access to omnidirectional finisher unblockable heavies which serve as an unreactable mixup between feint to GB, feint to light, feint to heavy, or release. The only issue they have is that they are deep into a chain for the highest damage options, and that the quickest access option is a short range top unblockable.
  
• Infinite chains and constant hyper armour within the infinite chain prevent Berserker from being safely option selected or interrupted, allowing Berserker to constantly pressure when he is up close.
  
• Good OOS pressure due to easy access unblockables and unreactable 300ms lights in chain and post-feint.
  
• Dodge cancels on whiff allow Berserker to challenge whiff punish attempts with quick hyper armoured forward dodge lights or deflect attempts.
  
• Dodging Berserker's finishers still allows Berserker to cover their whiff with a Zone recovery cancel or a dodge light cancel, making him very hard to punish on a dodge.
  

Defensive Tools
Defensive:

• Dodge cancels enable Berserker to backstep light and challenge pokes and whiff punishment attempts with quick hyper armoured forward dodge lights or deflect attempts.
  
• Highly delayable side dodge light that is undodgeable, nullifying most neutral bash/GB mixups, but are highly punishable on read.
  
• Very fast activating hyper armour on forward dodge light allows Berserker to ignore chain pressure from opponents without very fast options.
  
• Deflect, a free GB that interrupts every single option the opponent is able to do, resulting in fairly high punishes or outright death with the right environment
  
• Backstep top light does cover some range allowing Zerk to safely create distance - but, again, a slow light is punishable on read.
  
• Extremely fast parry riposte acts as an easy way to gain hyper armour in various situations and begin chaining.
  
• Competent Zone OS that puts Berserker in chain.
  

With all that out of the way, let's continue.

Feat and Perk Selection

FEATS:
T1 - Rush, Bounty Hunter, Storming Trap
T2 - Bear Trap, Doom Banner, Revenge Attacks Executioner's Respite
T3 - Throwing Axe, Fury, Sharpen Blade
T4 - Fire Flask, Berzerker, Fear Itself
Berserker has a pretty diverse list of feats, but as of recent changes, his list of "go-to" feats has become a bit more complicated. The full breadth of his feats are like Berserker, versatile but not fully specialized. He has a good mix of utility, defense, and offense. Every single slot has an argument for EVERY option, with two exceptions existing, and a possible third. Let's get into why.
Recommendations:
Bounty Hunter, Bear Trap, Throwing Axe, Fire Flask
Bounty Hunter, Revenge Attacks Bear Trap, Fury, Fire Flask
Bounty Hunter, Revenge Attacks Bear Trap, Fury, Fear Itself
Bounty Hunter, Revenge Attacks Bear Trap, Throwing Axe, Fear Itself
Explanation:

Berzerker's First Slot - Bounty Hunter

Berserker's first slot was once contested threefold. Now it's a lot more simple to pick between. Bounty Hunter was generally favourable as Berserker thrives when they are able to chain consecutive kills and keep themselves sustained in a fight. But there was always an argument for Stunning Trap when it functioned the way it used to. However, now that this is no longer the case, it's BH or Rush. Bounty Hunter is more consistently useful and fitting for Berserker, but Rush still has niche uses to aid in chases or quicker rotations, as always. It's never a bad option, just the worse one here.

Berzerker's Second Slot - Varied

Berserker's second slot is interesting, Bear Trap, Doom Banner and Revenge Attacks are all outright utility picks. Personally, I don't think it's a very hard choice between the three, as Revenge Attacks allows Berserker to consistently keep himself going even in bad situations. Doom Banner has a PLACE in a Berserker's toolkit, but it is simply too risky to regularly use, and without Stunning Trap, Bear Trap becomes more niche but is still definitely useable and pretty good on maps where it can be hidden. But, as it stands, Revenge Attacks is the most outright consistent, and it also goes hand in hand with the Berserker fantasy.
UPDATE: The Revenge Attacks feat no longer exists. Bear Trap is now considered best-in-slot by LimbLegion at this time.

Berzerker's Third Slot - Varied

There are literally no outright "bad" or "worse" options here alone, but with the existence of one of Berserker's tier 4s, the option is generally going to be pretty straightforward. But, let's ignore that for the moment as I am completely serious here.
Throwing Axe - A surprisingly useful, fun, and satisfying extra tool to add to a Berserker build. A 300ms activation speed 25 damage projectile is nothing to sneeze at. Can be used to kill fleeing opponents who aren't aware, and in your post-feint mixup game in 4s if you're feeling spicy.
Fury - As always this option is legitimately never bad. 15% sprint speed boost, 35% damage boost and 35% damage reduction. Berserker's has a 500ms startup and 300ms recovery. The dodge distance buff is also incredibly useful on Berserker who already has good dodge distance. Synergises absurdly well with Fire Flask and Fear Itself/Defense Debuff feats as a whole.
Sharpened Blades - Berserker has many easy access fast attacks, a multi hit zone attack that can be used as a decent option select and parry punish, and can pretty easily shred your health bar if you're careless. This option while worse in terms of cooldown and immediate results, is still never really an option you should laugh off.

Berzerker's Fourth Slot - Fear Itself or Fire Flask

Berserker has a case for both Fire Flask and Fear Itself here.
Fire Flask - Hands down pretty much the single best direct damage feat in the game. Fire Flask is very obviously the default choice you should make, ESPECIALLY if you are running Fury. However, as I said, I will argue for Fear Itself as well. All I need to say about Fire Flask is well known.
Fear Itself - Despite being not quite as good as Fire Flask, Fear Itself is generally a better pick on Breach, a better selfish pick in case you like to go and 1vX all the time, whilst still benefiting your team due to the debuff being very significant. It has a 600ms startup and 600ms recovery for Berserker.

All in all

Berserker's feats aren't quite as pick and choose as you please as they once were, but there's still reasonable cases for most of them. Find what works best for you, utility or straight up damage? Whatever you prefer. All of them aid your gameplan one way or the other.
PERKS:
Grey/Gray: Galestorm, Devourer, Early Reaper
Blue: Endurance
Purple: Survival Instinct
Orange: Crush Them
Mint: Head Hunter
Berserker has fully offensive perks as usual for assassins. Thankfully the vast majority of them, save for the bad picks in Survival Instinct, Crush Them and Early Reaper, are useful and compliment Berserker very well.
Recommendations:
Devourer, Endurance, Head Hunter
Devourer, Galestorm, Head Hunter
Devourer, Galestorm, Endurance
As mentioned, Berserker can run pretty much anything except for Crush Them, Survival Instinct and Early Reaper efficiently. Crush Them and Early Reaper are just trash, and Survival Instincts is something I have never ran on anybody, as it is an objectively worse Last Stand in every way, and Berserker already has access to Endurance, so why bother running that?
Galestorm helps with movement between rotations and even in chase, as Berserker doesn't have incredibly fast movespeed, it can help significantly speeding you across the map. Endurance is never a bad choice for a character who spends 99% of the time feinting and pressing buttons in your face, seriously, Berserker hemorrhages stamina hard, take this perk EVERY TIME. Head Hunter is a must if you want to trade efficiently in 4v4s, helpful especially due to Berserker's lacking health pool for a trading character. Devourer is a must for quicker healing.
You can make the case for ignoring Head Hunter and taking the bottom three, which is what I personally do, as it gives you good rotation speed after kills, extra healing, and much needed extra stamina for your offense. But, as always, it is ultimately up to you. I take the higher risk builds a lot of the time.

Theory and Execution, playing 1v1s

Berserker is not quite as straightforward a character as you'd expect. They have a kit which while not necessarily large, or bloated with moves, has numerous facets to it that when used to its full potential can push Berserker into being a relentless foe to fight in a 1v1. His gameplan overall is simple, you simply want to harass your opponent fast, ferociously, and above all else, give them no room to breathe. Berserker likes to get in, stay in, and then back off only to give themselves room to breathe, and then breathe down the opponents neck.
As the name implies, Berserker is a whirling ball of blades, teeth and complete ignorance of danger. Taking the opponents attempts to attack and hit the Berserker only to completely ignore it and strike back in the same moment, focrcing their opponent into an unfavourable situation where they have to defend against extremely fast, but low damage light attacks, or high damage heavy attacks. Nothing you do against Berserker is ever a safe option, and this is why.
Berserker is a character who closes in, and takes any attempt you make to give yourself momentum, only to smash it back in your face.
While Berserker is generally considered a character who primarily relies on offense to win, Berserker is versatile, they have dodge cancels and hyper armour, a GB for a deflect, and the ability to soft-feint out of their heavies to a dodge, which can serve numerous purposes offensive and defensive.

Feint Lights

Berserker perhaps is most infamous for their post-feint 400ms hyper armoured light attacks. These are the cornerstone of Berserker's harassment based gameplan. Berserker is very difficult to Zone option select, as like with other characters with hyper armour, a failed OS on a heavy attack can lead to you being on the back foot, as the Berserker is still hitting you.
These serve as a checking tool in neutral, a good way to stuff out mixups when your opponent has good options from neutral, a pseudo-dodge catch, an offensive pressure tool, a counter attack against option selects, etc. These lights can be delayed pretty hard, up to 367ms after a feint, and can be mixed up with heavies as well. They require a prediction to parry, but can only be this fast from sides.
His top feint light is 500ms, which is not as threatening, but opponents will sometimes still get surprised by you throwing it out once in a blue moon, don't fully disregard it now that 500ms lights are not consistently reactable in all levels of play.

Dodge Cancels

Berserker, as mentioned earlier, can dodge cancel any whiffed attack that wasn't any of their dodge attacks (except for Head Crusher), or their Zone attacks. This gives Berserker resounding safety on whiffs, as you are very difficult to punish with attacks due to the fact that you can dodge cancel into a dodge attack or a deflect. Berserker can bait opponents very easily with this, but don't overuse it as you are still vulnerable to GB.
A particularly useful option here is that for opponents who know you can do this, but rely on undodgeables, it's pretty much guaranteed that you will get GB deflects on them. Very useful, not to be underestimated, and can result in wins outright if the environment allows. Otherwise, you can still dodge into Head Slicer, which becomes near instantly hyper armoured if you want to trade with any attacks you for some reason do not expect to be able to deflect.

Dodge Attacks

Berserker has 3 dodge attacks, with varying use cases. Spin Chop is an undodgeable 600ms side light attack with superior delayability that chains into a heavy on whiff or hit. It does not have hyper armour, but it is very evasive due to its delayability, and serves very well with Berserker's particularly strong dodge option select game. This makes Berserker very safe against bashes, including variable bashes. But, due to it being a light attack, it is quite heavily punishable.
Head Slicer is a 600ms forward dodge light attack that becomes hyper armoured at 100ms. This again is a strong option select that results in Berserker trading with his opponents, stuffing GB's, or simply parrying. Same case as above, the attack is quite punishable if predicted. And if used as an option select, does come with the same risks.
Head Crusher is Berserker's other forward dodge attack, it is a 600ms forward dodge heavy that becomes hyper armoured at 200ms, like Head Slicer this in theory allows it to be used as a strong dodge option select, but unlike Head Slicer it comes out 200ms into the dodge, rather than 100ms, and does not chain on hit. This makes it less useful, but much more safe.

Deflect

Berserker's deflect is a very strong tool, as it is a guard break. It follows the exact same rules as any GB, but beats hyper armour and interrupts ANY action currently in progress. Even opponents who are in Revenge or Uninterruptible stance. This can result in ledges, environmental kills, wallsplat punishes, and so on. What makes this very good for Berserker is that he is able to interrupt some attacks on deflect that ordinarily are not interruptible thanks to its property.
For example: Deflecting another Berserker's zone will never be interrupted as the GB will ignore the followup hits. The same goes for Shaman zone, or any other multihit. Whereas any other deflect will either trade or outright be cancelled by it, save for Orochi's Hurricane Blast which has hyper armour, and Shinobi's deflect which similarly interrupts anything the opponent is doing.
While this tool is useful both offensively and defensively, it isn't a crutch tool and neither is it something that will be the main reason you win, it is simply another tool to add to Berserker's small but deep arsenal. Masterful use of this will cover Berserker's "vulnerable" moments very effectively due to the dodge cancels they have, and also enable bigger punishes on less punishable moves.

Conditioning and Understanding the Opponent

As Berserker has a heavy emphasis on mixups, feint game, and harassment, it is your job to SOLIDLY get in the head of your opponents. You need to, otherwise you will swiftly die due to having a low health bar, and most of your damage output being rapid fire barrages of low damage lights. You want your opponent to crumble under your assault, and never let up, if only to give your opponent more rope to hang themselves with.

Identifying and Dealing with your main weaknesses

My opponents get away from me easily.

Berserker's first real weakness presents itself here, but it's a pretty large one. Berserker has low range on everything, including his forward dodge attacks. As a result, he has trouble dealing with spacing and chasing.
Delayed Head Slicer can catch backdodges and rolls, but normally not from neutral unless on a hard read. In a situation where the opponent is sprinting away from you and rolling, Head Crusher will keep you relatively close to them, and dodge cancelling into a delayed Head Slicer will often catch rolls or sprint attempts as it has vastly better tracking. This said, you will struggle to catch anybody who chooses to not fight you.

My feint attacks get blocked.

Berserker does have a fairly obvious weakness in that its most attractive to attack from opposite directions with your post-feint lights, but that's not how it always has to be. Due to being able to delay your post-feint followups up to 367ms, you can switch your guard multiple times if you're quick enough to bait out prediction blocks and parries, though really it's just about being as unpredictable as possible.
Also, always remember to mix with feint into heavy, feint into GB, empty feints, and dodge cancels to catch zone option selects, providing your opponent is actually trying to zone OS you, which is very risky.

My dodge attacks keep getting caught.

As Berserker, you must always try to delay your dodge attack to the maximum possible input. If you don't, you're likely going to be eating light parries. Try to train yourself to input the attack only if an attack is committed or if you see a GB.
This may require a lot of practice, but Berserker is one of the higher skill cap characters in the game, so this isn't all that surprising.

I can't put pressure on people when they're out of stamina.

Berserker has easy access to unblockables that deal high damage and are 800ms, nobody is going to want to be hit by these.
Couple this with the fact that you have 400ms chain lights, 400ms postfeint lights, and a reasonably strong OOS punish, you can find yourself landing these more than you'd expect.

My Feint to GB keeps getting countered, even when I vary my patterns enough

Some opponents are outright resistant to conditioning, and will take more damage in the long run trying to avoid a possibly less threatening option.
Berserker's feint to GB can lead to higher damage at a wall but it will always end chains, generally if you can keep your chain going, losing out the higher reward punishes for constant pressure is never bad.
If you run into an opponent who can't seem to shake the feeling that you're going to never commit to finishers, consider yourself lucky.

I keep getting spaced out and backwalked away from, please help!.

Berserker's dodge cancels have a use here, if you're playing against characters who like to hang back and punish you for whiffing attacks, if they are using predictable pokes or slow heavies to try and dissuade you from approaching, always remember to dodge cancel and try to catch them with a deflect.
Berserker's deflect range is hilariously large and can be followed up from basically anywhere as long as you're locked onto your opponent, even tip range deflects and teammate deflects. You can also always go for a trade with Head Slicer if you can't get a deflect, which will interrupt your enemy and instantly start your own offense, but you risk small to medium damage for doing so.

Your place in 4v4s

Berserker is a jack of all trades in 4v4 modes, being capable of teamfighting, stalling, and ganking, but not particularly excelling at anything besides arguably 1vX situations.
What IS Berzerker good for?
Berserker shows exceptional strength at stalling out ganks. Revenge attacks and the general design of Berserker allows the character a lot of wriggle room to keep themselves alive, allowing their team to arrive to help or capture points with a little more leeway.
Berserker's scary OOS pressure and Revenge pressure also actually allows them to attack when outnumbered due to their high damage unblockables and fast lights. Berserker can gank semi-competently with characters who have high damage heavies with their GB into Zerk zone gank. Works very well with Centurion for extremely high damage ganks as well.
Alright, what's the catch - what ISN'T Berzerker good for?
Berserker is particularly bad in situations where you can't reliably target swap to get unparriable unblockables off in teamfights, i.e a Black Prior is bodyblocking you, or any other fullblock character who can interrupt you.
Berserker also is, due to being an assassin, unlikely to gain renown very fast without constant uptime. In situations where they are not able to maintain their lead, the feat race will usually be lost by them, and they are pretty reliant on Tier 2 and beyond to remain strong.

Your Match-ups (Simplified)

Hyperarmor Heroes
Berserker doesn't struggle immensely hard with hyper armoured characters, as obviously, you can trade through their hyper armour, normally you're able to punish them during recovery and keep your chain going. However, naturally, you must be very careful. You do not have a huge health bar, and other characters can deal more damage than you can sometimes. In particular, trading with Highlander is not always the best idea, Warlord can be a problem at times as well.
Shugoki isn't too bad, however, you should take care to not mash into Shugoki as he can headbutt you out of your chains depending on what you do.
Hitokiri is only dangerous to trade into if you don't stop attacking/feint and parry the unblockable in time depending on when you traded, otherwise you're eating 34 damage.
Heroes that Dodge
Berserker has decent tracking to the sides with feint lights, and undodgeable side dodge attacks, but as most of the dodge specialists who are not Kensei have feintable dodge attacks, this can prove to be a big risk to rely on.
Feint lights are good for catching dodges, but can whiff on dodge attacks, just remember to continue chaining or feint a heavy to parry/block anything the dodge attacker tries to do to you.
Tiandi and JJ will usually be safer if they just feint their dodge attacks.
Kensei can be traded with semi-competently, just don't do it when you are low HP.
Zhanhu won't dodge anything unless he hard delays his dodge attack input, don't worry too much about Zhan, even if he does dodge and you trade, you took 9 damage and did probably double that.
As for dodge bashers like Conq, Glad and so on, you must be extra vigilant.
Heroes with Bashes
Berserker doesn't have a bad time against bashes due to a highly delayable dodge light, and your dodge OS game is good for dealing with chain basHes as well.
Variable bashes are the same, but as they can be feinted, you will have to be careful to not get yourself parried. Usually you want to wait for any sign that they are trying to GB you before you input your dodge light.
As always, however, don't be predictable.
Berzerker Matchups - Extended
Extended matchups link
If it ever goes down, let QK know.

Fighting With Berzerker

Berserker has numerous ganks with different characters, but the main one is pretty straightforward to explain, so I will start this one.
Berserker off of an ally GB can zone attack on reaction to the enemy teching a guard break, then buffer a chain light, feint heavy and GB to guarantee an ally chain heavy. Similar principle as most bash ganks. This feeds a lot of revenge for the most part and should not be overused.
Berserker can also get high damage with his UBs off of blockstun, and also, as usual, top heavies off of any bash if you're quick enough. Otherwise, side heavies are safer and also allow quick access to your top UB finisher, which a teammate can GB for.
In teamfights, Berserker takes many risks to output huge damage. His health bar as frequently mentioned is only 120, in teamfights one bad trade can easily spell death if you're not careful. Your time in teamfights is best served target swapping your side heavies to try and blockstun enemies into other damage from teammates, and to make your side heavy UB unparriable. It has a pretty good hitbox, so you can get some good wiggle room with it consistently.
Avoiding characters who can easily interrupt you, be it with bashes or other moves that ignore Hyperarmour is your best bet, but if you can lock them down do so as you wish. Your teammates should always try their best to follow up on what you do, be it interrupting your enemies trying to punish you, or GB'ing for any finishers that can be guaranteed.
You can also go for semi-competent interrupts with delayed Head Slicer and delayed Head Crusher, generally Head Slicer will land more often but if a teammate is about to be max punished and you can't get in range with Head Slicer, Head Crusher will serve you well, just be quick about it.

Closing Thoughts

Now hopefully with this guide you will develop a greater understanding of Berserker's small but somewhat deep toolkit. Berserker is immensely satisfying to play and there's no feeling quite like surviving a 1v2 by outright killing your opponents. Becoming a whirling ball of death in a teamfight, crushing your opponents under a flurry of quick chip damage and relentless pressure, and just outright ignoring your opponents attempts to hit you out of mixups.
Berserker works well in 4v4, and decently well in 1v1. Take him wherever you want, personally I think Berserker shines most in 2v2 modes, as all of his strengths can be shown best there. But as said, any mode works.
As always with these guides, any tech you personally know, tips or tricks, are 100% encouraged to be posted in the comments, as well as any information you see in here that you deem to be incorrect. I will be watching to see what's said and interact as much as possible.
Limb is a loser lol
EDIT: "Why did you remove this from the CompetitiveForHonor page?" - Check onto my profile on the newReddit site for that. If you do not care that much, then don't.

Pablo Carreno Busta lost, and I’m sad. I can’t help it. I really wanted him to win there, and the manner in which he lost was so difficult to watch. So I feel down. And no matter how I try I can’t get into writing up these upcoming matches. So I’m not gonna. Instead, here’s a story about a beaver.
“The Problematic Puffin”
Chapter 1
Shuffles the caterpillar made his way down the tree. Something was wrong. “Wtf, bro?” said Shuffles. “Huh?” said Mortimer the beaver, while gnawing. “Stop eating my tree,” said Shuffles. “You can’t own a tree,” said Mortimer, “besides, how are you talking anyway?” The caterpillar said nothing. Just then David Goffin walked by, on some kind of quest with the good wizard Karlovic. The end.
​
Thiem Zverev : After a gloriously brilliant day of semifinals on the women’s side, the men’s matches today left me feeling empty. Well, one match in particular. Carreño Busta came out playing some great tennis. The announcers said “he really has no way to hurt Zverev” and while that was one of the more casually disrespectful attempts at belittling professional tennis I’ve heard in a while, in a way PCB’s inability to hit outright winners during rallies was the thing that hurt Zverev the most. Busta’s shot tolerance and his commitment to consistent power left Zverev somewhat trapped in rallies, and as he was still making errors and struggling to get his serve going, this left him in a very isolated position on the court.
Cliff Drysdale was the only announcer willing to hint that Zverev might be getting outplayed, while the others discussed only reasons not to count Zverev out. At 4-0 I heard “if Zverev holds here, don’t count him out of this set” so often I had to turn the sound off. The ensuing 3 sets vaguely making their point made me even more nauseous. Zverev, similar to may of his other matches, stopped making nonstop errors and suddenly it was a tough match. This coincided with PCB seeming to hit half a wall as far as fatigue was concerned, as he suddenly started to make simple errors of his own. It was depressing watching a guy who fought so hard and who was playing a significantly better match of tennis also seem like he had little to no chance of holding serve easily enough to win. Zverev, to his credit, has a very powerful serve when it lands in, and while Pablo put a lot of returns in play early on, it was that stabbing slice return that lands short for a lot of sets 4 and 5 and he was unable to get a break back on a few occasions.
I had said that for Zverev to beat PCB, he’d have to have shown a level of tennis that would mean he actually did have a chance against the bottom bracket. What a fool I am. What I saw was a talent in Zverev so qualified to be a top player that he can win while playing less than what his peak is. He can serve double faults and make careless errors. He can push to his heart’s fulfillment, and he hits such a heavy ball and is capable of such strong offense at times that even playing poorly for half a match he’s still able to get through. It isn’t the sort of “turn it up” effort that makes champions though, yet here we are with a guy who I’ve doubted every single round in the finals of a grand slam.
Thiem and Medvedev was widely regarded as the finals, so much so that it received the mandatory internet backlash anything ppl say too often does. This match did not disappoint in the first set as Thiem and Medvedev were everywhere all at once and played nonstop offense. It almost seemed like we were set to have a classic 5-setter, but Thiem’s slice proved to be the opposite of what I had predicted. I felt Medvedev would run around the backhand and play a bit more aggressive but Thiem placed it well. There were a few points where Medvedev looked to get to net after going to the backhand and while Thiem was basically 100% on passes down the line, I do like this play if your opponent is frequently hitting the slice. The first set was brilliant up until a questionable call by the umpire led Medvedev to lose his control and hand over 3 games in a row. As the match progressed Medvedev hit his backhand more and more hopefully, and as Thiem wasn’t going for much and hanging deep, it wasn’t an effective strategy. Med’s serving wasn’t the best, and while I predicted Thiem would make errors playing offense, he never did aside from a brief struggle after he injured his right foot at the end of the second set. It was a tense moment as Thiem begin playing a bit more aggressive to start the third and quickly gave up a break. The tide didn’t turn though as much as Medvedev would have hoped, and Thiem was still the one controlling most of the rallies. Getting broken when you’re serving for a set down 2 sets is just a real tough hurdle to overcome, and Thiem earned this victory in a somewhat dominant fashion.
The finals here is the last chance for me to doubt Zverev. He has struggled through his matches but seemed an inevitable victory at some point late in most of them. Here he is so potentially overmatched that I almost think he’ll play his best tennis, with the pressure being somewhat off by virtue of being such a large underdog. Losing the first set in this match is not something he’ll be able to overcome, and the biggest chance he has here is for Thiem’s foot injury to cause him major movement problems. If he sprained his ankle or something to that effect, it’s a possibility. Barring this though, he now faces at least an equal quality defender to PCB, who also boasts the best backhand in the tournament and the biggest forehand. I’m sure Zverev can get on a good serving run and find himself deep in a set as Thiem is good for one bad service game per two sets, but this is one way traffic, and Thiem’s first major title. Thiem in 3, and I hope we see Zverev redline his game for this one, as it would be a really entertaining final if he does.
AzarenkakasO : Serena Williams played the best set of tennis we’ve seen in this tournament in the first set of her quarterfinal, and Azarenka kept playing. A bug landed on her face, and Azarenka kept meditating. She lost every match for what seemed like a whole season, and Azarenka kept playing. Perseverance and belief were present within her, but man if it wasn’t beautiful to see the emotion spill out of her as she began to succeed in this match. Serena was crushing her backhand and her forehand was faster than we’ve seen it since her return to the tour. Given Zvonareva and Azarenka’s recent surge to form, there’s potential that Serena could find her form next season. Aza seemed behind the pace to start the match and had trouble with her first serve which is always a problem against an aggressive returner. Once she was able to make her way into rallies she began wearing down her opponent, and the heavy breathing on Serena’s part was a good and bad sign depending on who you were cheering for. Azarenka went from having the ball hit clean by her to hitting clean winners off the backhand herself, and an injury to Serena’s foot was a good chance for her to catch her breath, but her movement did seem a bit hampered after that. It is rare you get to see genuine happiness from a player on court. So often it’s desperation to win, hobbitlike lust for victory, or just blind arrogant confidence after getting lucky. Azarenka brought actual tears to my eyes when she happily bounded to her chair, and her celebration after the match made me wish the crowd was there for the first time all event.
Unfortunately, the tournament is not over. Osaka played a first set against Brady that was not an offensive mastepiece, but a complete display. Brady played excellent throughout this match, and still had very little chance to win early on. It reminded me a bit of the Rublev Medvedev battle in which Brady was crushing the ball but Osaka was simply a wall. A break in the second saw Brady hold admirably to force a third, and her level in this match was good enough to win, but Osaka has avoided the struggles and errors that categorized her as an infrequent champion in the past, even as recently as last week. Last week I liked Azarenka’s chances in this matchup. She was rolling her opponents, was fresh, and Osaka hadn’t been overwhelming by any means. This tournament Osaka has played so error free and defended so well that it will be tough here for Azarenka to score as she was against Serena’s hampered movement. Osaka is a better athlete as far as explosive speed and power, and having a better serve will give her an edge here that is difficult to overcome. For Osaka to struggle at this point in her career the moment will have to be too much (I felt a possible Serena match could have her feeling some extracurricular pressure) or too little (she may struggle to put in the effort at smaller events in early rounds). This isn’t either of those things. A comfortable situation with no crowd and in an event that she’s won before.
Writing off Azarenka completely is unfair, and she’ll make this a difficult contest as best she can. We’ll see errors from Osaka if this is going to be Azarenka’s day, and that’s the only path I see for her to win although she is the best player in the draw for earning them. Osaka in 2.
PS … during this event I got back to betting which was lucrative and exhaustingly stressful, but I also had the good fortune to be invited to a friendly (just for fun; no $) tipping contest run by u/kuklachert … daily updates to the standings were lots of fun to follow, and chatting with the ppl on his discord channel was really enjoyable … he’s likely doing one for the event in Rome coming up as well, so if you’re interested, keep an eye out for his post : )

Hey Reddit! I'm a challenger player in all 3 sets of tft on OCE and also Challenger in Set 3 on NA. I am also Master on OCE for set 3.5. You may have seen a similar post by me regarding the 10.7 patch and 10.8 patch which after a little hiatus to grind snapshots I've decided to do again! After playing 30 or so games on the first day in challenger lobbies, many pbe games and challenger in-house lobbies i have a pretty good idea about which comps will be strong. Use this as a way to get started in 10.12 until the meta settles and maybe get a little free LP before everyone catches on. If you have any questions feel free to leave them here or ask me on my stream (twitch.tv/chatskiiees) i should be live for the next 12 hours or so grinding back to rank 1 shortly after this this post goes live. Let's get into it!

Key Information (Gameplay)

• The flow of the game, like at the beginning of all new patches, heavily favours win-streaking. Win-streaking generally is always better than lose-streaking but even more so at the beginning of a new patch. Playing from behind when uncomfortable with compositions and unit strengths is a recipe for disaster. Consider lose streaking when playing heavily contested comps that require specific items, but remember its always a gamble; Inting for protector asol spat will lose you more games than it will win you.
• The ability to sell units for their full gold -1 (except 1 star units) makes the game much more difficult in my opinion. One of the biggest mistakes I've seen people do on this patch is get baited by upgraded units. Sure its reasonable to upgrade units and run them instantly in order to win streak and save health, and this is what you should be doing, but you have to have a good understanding on the strength of units vs. the strength of synergies in order to transition before you bleed out. Make sure you play a lot of games and figure out which units are good to keep and which ones need to go. For example, mort has said space pirates spike at 2-6, the round where they have the highest winrate, then begin to fall off. Knowing when to take out that early spike for synergies is pivotal, especially when holding a 2 star Darius can cost you econ.
• Speaking of econ, how you are managing your econ depends heavily on two things on 10.12. The first is the galaxy you are playing on. Most people understand the need for adaptation on specific galaxies and many are self evident (you can trade health for money in medium legends for example) but ensure you aren't trading one too heavily over the other. Furthermore, when you start playing in higher elos against the same players every game, your typical econ strategy becomes very easy to read and counter-able. Consider playing against the norm on galaxies in order to press advantage when you are comfortable with your position. A tip i always give on my stream is that the game isn't just about making yourself win, it's about making the other players lose. The second thing it relies on is your rng. Play off what you hit and attain a complex understanding of board strength. Understanding your relative strength to the lobby and assessing that based on your health total is probably the most important skill in TFT.
• My favourite thing about 3.5 is that you can play 3 cost carries, 4 cost carries or 5 cost carries. The rebel patch that started set 3 was 5 cost carries, then it was 4 cost carries, then back to 5 then bang bros but now there's a lot of diversity. Vayne, Cassio, Syndra, yi and probably a few others can all hold carry items and be predominant damage dealers. 3 cost carries have also been buffed by the pool changes to 3 cost units (16-18), as well as the fact that you now have a 30% chance to find 3 costs at 9 as opposed to 25%.
• Speaking of carries, multiple instances of damage is key to comp success on this patch. Save for a few comps that have synergies revolving around particular units (like mech or prot. asol) there exists so much damage and target removal (looking at you urgot you big fucking boi) that you can easily get unlucky in a teamfight and lose 20+ hp. Consider splitting carry items where possible (gs irelia and gs vayne is better than two gs irelia in a lot of circumstances)
• Reroll comps for 1* units are pretty dead, the addition of two 1 cost units and removal of only 1 ruins the pool a little, but more so they can't keep up with the new big bad motherfuckers in 3.5. What can xayah do when its kfc time for urgot PepeHands.
• Riot have said they want to push the game away from linear comps that run 6 of the same units, like star guardians, sorcs, cybers but that is really not the case anymore. Running your end game synergies like 4 prots, 4 snipers 6 cyber etc. is key to late game now. Understanding when to sell your upgraded units to spike off synergies is extremely important (ties in what i was saying about people getting baited by upgraded units).
• Reroll comps are fine but risky. Reroll comps have always had a pretty good late game generally as 3* units are obviously better than 2* units and the general relative strength of a 3* two cost is slightly above a 2* 4 cost. Protector reroll is definitely the best reroll comp, but i've seen people have success with rebels and vanguards, though vanguards is probably the worst of the 3 due to everyone running them for sniper early game.

Key Information (Units/Synergies)

• Most units that were in set 3 have kept their niche (its too early to tell if there's a substantial change in what a unit wants to do in a comp) but there are some important notes for new and old units.
• BARD IS A MONSTER BAIT 99% OF THE TIME. Guys i understand. Bard is a cutie pie and hes a money machine that you just want to run him every time but seriously don't. The trade off of losing 20% of your units at 5, 16.66% at 6, 14% at 7 is monstrous when you think about it that way. The only time i run this unit is if i get a lucky two star and i'm running some kind of cassio carry. Also if u neeko this on neekoverse i'm gonna find you and kill you (in game).
• The new one costs are ok idk what else to say they do their job and 2 infiltrator is always gonna be a good early game.
• The relative strength of 5 cost units has gone way up. Ekko, Asol, Urgot, Janna, Gangplank (as always) etc. are all game changing when used correctly. Some of them can be run in a variety of comps to increase strength (like janna or ekko) but these are going to be win conditions in certain comps. Item stacking these units is probably your best bet post stage 4-7 pve.
• All the new 4 costs (except riven) are pretty good. Vik Gnar and Teemo are all pretty good and fit the comps that they go into well, though gnar is the only one that is flexible he's kind of like the brawler wukong. You'll notice i left out riven cause she is pretty bad. I understand that she is good in 6 sorcerers but the late game for that comp is pretty mediocre at best. Sure you can win games with it but whenever i play 6 sorcs i find myself prioritising viktor, mech or xerath instead. Theres just no way i'd rather run qss / rabadons /ga on a riven 2 over a qss guinsoo on a xerath. Consider using her as an item holder for xerath/gangplank.
• Cassio is super item dependent but really good when she has blue buff morello. Vayne is the same, very effective with items and worthless without.
• Vanguards > brawlers almost always. Vanguards are just way more effective and flat hp while effective due to the red buff nerfs is just sub-optimal when compared to a massive armor boost.
• It's really early but if i had to rate 6 battlecast out of 10 i'd give it a hard 0 this synergy does pretty much nothing but someone remind me in a week if 6 battlecast becomes meta and you guys can laugh at me. The synergy is just so much weaker than the other ones and the units are all pretty mediocre since they are predominantly 1-2 costs. Urgot doesn't really benefit from the buff much aswell compared to say kog, who is kind of weak as a 3*. We will see though.
• Zed is the new early game lucian he kinda nutty. Run him as ad item holder in cybers/rebels (remake him in rebels later.)
• 4 protector is gross lmao expect hot fix, good thing this comp sucks when contested or we would have another 10.6 fiesta on our hands.
• Mystic gonna get nerfs too. Consider pivoting to 4 mystic late game at the cost of some of your supporting synergies where necessary.

Key Information (Items)

• Blue buff change was a really good idea by riot it makes the game much more easier to balance. All this really did was kill overpowered strategies like ziggs 3* and syndra double seraphs.
• IE is a really good item on alot of units now. Guaranteeing crits on comps that scale highly with attack damage and flat damage buffs such as cybers and rebels creates a nutty combination. It's sad that last whisper provides 20% crit chance so in conjunction you are losing alot of value (yo mort just change ie to 80% and add like 10% crit dmg yea i know hire me riot balance team) but the two items work well together that its worth the trade off. IE + GS > IE + LW in my opinion.
• Chalice is in that weird 'good but i'm never thinking about making it' niche that tft has always had. It's like zhekes, good but just make it when you can't make the items you actually need. The only thing i'll say about this though is that if you already have ionic spark this can be really helpful in sorc comps if you don't need tear but who doesn't need tear in sorcs?
• Warmogs is the new wave you heard it here first boys and girls slam this shit ASAP. Chucking this on xin 2 will get you all the way to stage 4 easy breezy and the best part about this item is that its a tank item and a carry item! Giving 1000 hp to your jinx, irelia, wukong, xin, urgot, gangplank, asol you name it just never feels terrible. Make sure you finish your core items first however.
• Giant slayer really good run it on your jinx your yi your vayne even your mech! (ok maybe not mech but some people think its good, i don't personally.)
• Titans resolve is really good now they didn't change it but if you run this on mech or xin it will put in monster work. Maybe because there are alot of tanks running around fights are slower so this has a lot of value. Bramble is probably close now in priority not sure which is better but generally bramble since it beats ie and has a better early game.
• I don't think i've seen anyone make bloodthirster in 40 games but i think gunblade is a little underrated where you can fit it on an ap carry. I've won a few games playing ga seraph gunblade viktor in 6 sorcs.
• Ludens is pretty good, slam it if you wanna winstreak or save the components if you are a greedy boy like me. The main takeaway is that it isn't useless late game and gets a lot of value on units with low mana pools like cassio or ziggs.

10.12 Team Compositions

(A+/S++++ (No asol/Asol)) 4 Mystics Protectors. Protectors are back and yea its just as annoying as last time. Xin lives forever, eats everyone, and rakan thinks its fun to knockup your whole team for no reason. Urgot 2 makes this comp giga busted and a perfect item of this comp (in the asol version) is pretty much a guaranteed 1st. The skill expression on this comp comes with your personal discipline. You have to know when its a 3 starring xin game and when its a push levels game. Typically, i push levels with early spat to find asol as soon as possible, or when contested. If uncontested, i'll make a decision on 4-1 whether i'm going to keep rolling ( i typically slowroll on 6 to find all my upgraded protectors and cassio 2) or going to push levels. Cassio 3 is the win condition in this comp without asol. 9 for 4 celestial in both variations.
*You can also play 4 mystics with 4 vanguards with cassio carry, but this is weaker and typically lacks damage in the late game without 3* cassio. You can win with this comp if you winstreak with 4 vanguards however, as you will usually last till top2-3. Run xin items on wukong.
(S) Astro Snipers. This comp is the bread and butter of NA right now but gets very little play in my region, between 0-2 a game. The comp however is still very effective. 4 Snipers seems core from my experience as 2 snipers doesn't let jhin carry fast enough and your frontline gets overwhelmed. There is debate on BIS for jhin but nothing beats double runanas dblade in my opinion. IE/LW/GS are all fine however. You can also prioritise a xerath 2 with guinsoo if you are playing a heavy vanguard lobby. Teemo items are very important in this comp as well do not overlook them, jhin is priority however. Go 9 for mystic 9 is key for this comps success in the late game.
(A+) Cybernetiks My personal favourite comp has a new friend in vayne and she's pretty lit. This comp plays fairly linearly but the debate comes in the form of irelia carry or vayne carry. Personally, i prefer irelia, especially when uncontested as 3* 4 costs when you are winstreaking is pretty reliable when uncontested, but vayne 3 also packs a big punch. The items are BIS for irelia and vayne imo. Celestial feels really bad to run now with no kassadin. If you are running vayne play jhin for sniper and if you are playing irelia play blademasters. Go 9 for thresh or fizz if you have good ekko items.
(A+) RebelsThe days of ziggs rebel is over so we back to jinx. The jinx nerfs are noticeable significantly on 3 star jinx but two star jinx feels as good as ever. People might condemn me for saying firecannon is best in slot but honestly try it out and you'll never go back. You can reroll with this comp if you are close to hitting or are on trade sector but for the most part i go straight to 8. Play 6 rebels at 7 with blaster and it should carry you to 8 where you can play ekko or gangplank. Ekko is exceptionally good in this comp with zed granting infiltrator and the stasis effect of ekkos ult allowing asol to drain the opponents mana ( as he continues flying during stasis). Play whichever 5* you don't have in at 9 (gangplank or ekko) though sometimes i skip gangplank if no ga or no upgrades and keep malphite, running gnar alongside him for more frontline, taking out ziggs. Run Urgot over gangplank or ekko if you hit protector spat for asol and i've even had success playing 6 rebel 4 protector at 9 with asol protector.
(A-S-S+??) Sorc Mech/ standard Variations of this comp is probably what i'm most unsure of, though i have played a lot of games of each type. Sorc mech is definitely strong as a comp, 3 piece mech with titans and 6 sorc just obliterates teams. Viktor is typically my carry in this comp unless i play the 6 star guardian variant. Viktor positioning is extremely important and viktor 3 is the win con (beating any other comp ive found including prot asol.) Play to reach level 7 deciding what variation of 6 sorcs to play (star guardians, mech, riven, viktor or gangplank) rolling till you have the core units and a holder for rabadons/ga (viktoriven ahri 2 etc.) . If i get star guardian spat i run viktor carry. I mostly play the mech variant with viktor carry. What you put in at 9 depends on which comp you run.
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(B At best) Blaster brawler i mean this is probably still ok cause jinx is good but don't play this. Same as ever just another blaster over mf and gnar over cho. I know from experience this comp for reddit is like the gospel truth but seriously this is just worse than the other comps. Play it if you don't like having to think.
(D) 6 Darkstars / 6 Battlecast / 6 Chrono

Final Thoughts and TL:DR

Thank you so much once again for reading my guide on the 10.12 patch and i hope you got something out of it. I expect the accuracy of my predictions to be on par with the last and i reiterate that the meta may change but this guide should get you started well. Make sure you aren't hard forcing any of these comps unless you are extremely confident in doing so as the game is extremely balanced right now and it is better to play based on what items/units you hit. Play comps and watch streams (like mine at twitch.tv/chatskiiees) to improve. Make sure you don't autopilot while playing and if you want to climb the game needs 100% of your focus. Always remember that tft is like any sport/discipline in that imitation will only ever get you so far and true excellence requires creativity, adaptation and artistry. I'll be streaming this patch on my main in high OCE chally and doing lolchess/AMA for probably the whole day today! Feel free to leave comments below aswell i always try to answer them all. GLHF!

Expect the unexpected on this Bizarro Wednesday.

Group C:

• Living Legend with 4 Code S Finals all of which he won in a row, the one and only: Maru

• Dark Horses looking to show off their skills and climb to the very top: Trap, Solar, Dream

The Jin Air Boys were the consensus duo looking to dominate this Group - namely Maru would completely obliterate long time victim Solar, while Trap would flex on the relatively low name value Dream and show off his historically strong PvT from there to either get out right away or reach M5, where either of the favorites would likely slap around whoever was left regardless. The issue with that straightforward enough "plan" turned out to be the willingness of Solar and Dream to play their parts, instead they decided to prove themselves as some of the strongest players in the scene at the moment and kick off a day of upsets in the process.

Warning: Spoilers Ahead, Obviously

It's not just a Dream and although to some it may have felt like a nightmare by the end, the Terran Dark Horse did his thing all the same and managed to come out 1st once again this Season.

In the aftermath of literally only upsets, Trap threw everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents to claw his way through to 2nd, shakily reaching the Playoffs for the second time this year.

M1 | Maru [ 1 : 2 ] Solar | ★★★☆☆ | Nemesis, Who?

• Ice And Chrome | When the Blueflame Hellion shenanigans got scouted before even fully leaving their Factory, the writing was honestly on the wall for this one. Solar showed solid defense, got some Roaches and started off with the Carapace Upgrade, which was the right call as he very quickly figured out the Bio followup to avoid going down a losing line himself. Maru eventually lost a big chunk of his Hellions while accomplishing no econ damage overall, slowing himself down further and losing control of the map completely. Still, the Terran push arrived at the fourth Hatch and got the planned deletion there, however the Zerg then simply swept most of the enemy forces away and just double expanded from that point. Maru decided his best chance after that would be to hunker down and set up the 2/2 push to the best of his abilities, however when it eventually started it was going insanely slow, giving Solar a window to pull off a sick counter attack around 12:40 picking off reinforcements and econ alike to turn the Terran around, which basically sealed his fate. From there the Zerg did his thing i.e. consumed the entire map with creep, built up a ridiculous bank to fuel his endless assault and kept pounding his opponent's chances into the ground by picking off armies and SCVs at will. Maru dug in hard and did what he could, ultimately it just didn't look like he had it in him to win from an impossible position today, so as the situation became increasingly more dire in a rare showcase of Ultras not losing you the game Solar crashed into his opponent at 26:00 for the final real fight to force him out.

• Pillars of Gold | The next map felt a lot more normal as the Terran decided to go with some standard Hellion Liberator harassment to keep his opponent busy while getting ready for the push. Although some sick micro was required around 07:20 Maru pulled it off and as a result the fourth Hatch was removed from the game and there would be no double expanding allowed this time. The defense back at home was solid to stop the counter attack attempts, the supply spiked as you would expect and by 13:00 it was clear Solar was running on fumes as he desperately looked for any way to get some breathing room to catch back up in army, something Maru wouldn't allow here as he smashed the Zerg over the head with his superior force.

• Ever Dream | With nothing worth mentioning beyond the fact the third CC landed before the fourth Hatch was started, things were looking good for the Terran as he set the table for one last parade. Instead, Solar made an absolutely critical play in picking off reinforcements and SCVs around 06:55 completely putting his opponent off rhythm as the Swarm grew on the map and the Ling Bane Muta roamed it freely. Maru once again went for the G1 plan of just holding on until your opponent bleeds enough resources to allow you back in the game, something Solar had no interest in doing as he picked off CCs and crashed wave after wave into the Terran while taking sufficient fights around 14:00 to open up the SCV lines for destruction and an even more one-sided set of skirmishes a or so minute later would be the finishing touches on an absolutely perfect game from the Zerg.

M2 | Trap [ 0 : 2 ] Dream | ★★☆☆☆ | Guns Blazing

• Pillars of Gold | The opening Blink pressure and relatively fast three CCs made it so both players had their assigned roles to play for the next ten minutes, namely the Terran defending to the best of his ability as the Protoss did what he could to pick off SCVs and contain him. Dream played that stereotypical back and forth to near perfection, losing little if not anything at all, while powering hard on his three CCs as Trap took a fourth and transitioned into Colossi. I thought we would be in for a relatively longer game from there, but the Terran had other plans, doing a key setup around 09:25 which lead to a decisive engagement that simply melted the Protoss forces, leaving the bases defenseless as the parade danced its way to victory.

• Deathaura | The proxy Starport and multi-pronged pokes by Dream at the start were met with rock solid defense by his opponent, allowing Trap to safely grow on the map at a rapid pace while freely teching up for the most part. What was then an essentially 2.5 base push from the Terran got immediately sent back home to help put out the Warp Prism Zealot fire, which was counter balanced slightly by some Hellions doing their own work across the map. Dream made sure to kill off the Prism through the power of the Viking however was unable to realistically push even as the Protoss still didn't have Storm completely done while taking his fourth Nexus. Trap decided the econ and tech leads weren't enough, so he then took his army and in what's sadly become a typical move for him in the matchup drove it straight into the sieged Terran at 09:25 after which things were a lot more even then they ever should have been. Dream picked off the new Prism, got some important snipes on Templar and overall postured defensively. It was at that point that Trap seemingly got his foot on the opponent's throat as he started picking off bases left and right around 14:25 only to find the price he'd paid to accomplish that would end up being too high. Dream took his then army supply lead and marched it across the map, finding a borderline defenseless Protoss waiting for him there and as he picked off a Nexus or two in response while replacing his own missing CCs, it quickly became clear the Terran had not only survived the storm but come out the other end looking all smiles while heading into the winners' match.

M3 | Solar [ 1 : 2 ] Dream | ★★☆☆☆ | Brawl

• Pillars of Gold | I felt excited when the third Hatch got proxied in a random corner of the map, only for this game to turn into a glorified build order win as the Terran tried utilizing Hellbats for an early push in 2020. When the flimsy attack ran into just a few slow Roaches seeing as both players couldn't lose at the same time the Zerg took this one home with their own counter assault at 05:25.

• Deathaura | Thankfully, business picked up significantly on the second map in terms of quality, with a BC rush supported by three CCs coming out from the Terran. The choice to go with Overlord Speed paid off for the Zerg, getting to see literally everything and defend accordingly, transitioning into Roach Corruptor to answer his opponent's Mech. The addition of Infestors for Solar paid off a number of times, however Dream's patient play would turn out to be the deciding factor here. The first significant battle went down around 13:10 as maxed out Mech once again proved to be indomitable. Solar did what he could to barely clear the Terran army and hold on, from there he tried remaxing on Ling Bane which did initially pay off as the once Thor Tank force turned to Cyclones and Hellions, however Dream's macro engine wasn't skipping a beat and his bank was only growing in comparison as the game went on. Perhaps the choice to go with Broods was the proverbial nail in the coffin after that, in any case at 17:05 the Winfestors did everything they could to bring the Swarm victory, however as the dust settled there just wasn't enough Solar left over to snowball into a killing blow and from there Dream never let him have another real chance at taking the game, perfectly piloting his Mech to victory.

• Golden Wall | When the Terran went for relatively fast three CCs and lost his Reaper, I could see how you would think the Roach Ling flood coming his way would be a problem, however with a Banshee on the way and a human behind the controls it was always going to be really hard for the Zerg to get anything done. The extremely flawed attack crashed and burned around 05:00 minutes into the game, making it all but over. Solar did what he could to get some Muta Ling Bane out, however Dream's expected push was too big and too fast to ever lose at that point, so the Terran basically went through the motions and closed things out with ease accordingly.

M4 | Maru [ 0 : 2 ] Trap | ★☆☆☆☆ | Paying The Price

• Deathaura | Trap decided it was time to flip some coins, which is always a solid gameplan when your normal stuff is getting you nowhere. As luck would have it, Maru's Reaper scouted his opponent's Prism and Dark Shrine after a small mishap at the front, at which point my brain said "go next". Instead, one of the worst defenses I've ever seen from a Terran player resulted in 13 SCVs dying over the course of the DT harassment that started around 04:45 and by the time the Protoss forces were dealt with the accumulated lead had grown so big that Maru immediately tapped out when his first attempt to do anything on the map was met with a Blink snipe on his Medivac.

• Eternal Empire | With quick three bases for each player, I thought we would be in for a long one here, however not even 07:10 into the game Trap started spewing out Zealots all over Maru's bases and the response was unbelievably slow, resulting in 18 SCVs paying the price by the time the harass was fully dealt with. From there the Protoss definitely showed a lot more patience i.e. didn't try attacking up ramps into a sieged position for no reason, so with Maru just hunkering down and crossing his fingers at that point - as there wasn't much else he could do after allowing such a deficit to occur - the battle would come to a close around 13:00 as Trap arrived right on time to win a huge fight in the open and in doing so deny an enemy base while growing himself uncontested back at home, turning this game into a Math problem the Terran could no longer solve.

M5 | Solar [ 1 : 2 ] Trap | ★★★☆☆ | Shake It Out

• Pillars of Gold | We all knew it would be Glaives o'clock here, what none of us suspected was how reserved Trap would be with them as he set up his DT squad to take out his opponent's Lair. From there the already crippled Zerg did what he could to stabilize but the Protoss pressure continued, resulting in a relatively quick snipe on the fourth Hatch as well, at which point Solar was completely economically screwed. Trap built up a terrifying carefully constructed army and never allowed his opponent to go more than even on bases, which I'm sure you all understand is extremely uncommon for PvZ, so as the Protoss forces grew more and more insurmountable the Jin Air survivor just calmly took his time and beat his opponent into a pulp, nemesis statuses be damned tonight.

• Ice And Chrome | The attempted repeat of the Glaives into DT build did not go well as Solar was no longer blindsided so things spiraled from there. A questionable recall triggered by some Lings surrounding an Immortal across the map sealed the fate of Trap's attempted and already flimsy push around 08:00 at which point the Mutas started flooding in so the Zerg's fun could begin. Solar didn't find enough damage to straight up end the game, however he did max out first by a good margin and lets be real had a big enough lead that a few botched attacks just couldn't take away. As the Protoss forces powered up and took increasingly better fights, the proverbial tipping of the scales occurred at roughly 12:20 with the Zerg accepting direct engagements were no longer on the table & kicking off the base race accordingly. In the chaos that followed, Trap lost every Probe on the map and Solar had just enough money to hide a Hatch and overall deal with the situation slightly better, so largely thanks to his Muta flock and the thinly spread out Protoss forces he managed to close this one out in tight fashion.

• Ever Dream | Skipping the Glaives and going straight for DTs would have looked really cool if it had worked out, instead it got scouted and at that moment the pressure vacuum was intense. Trap improvised significantly, even using DTs to defend his third Nexus in the aftermath, and just went into Blink Robo from there to try turning this into a game. Solar was essentially chilling on four bases at that time, picking off what he could with little effort and teching up for the lategame. That's likely the reason why it felt like he got caught with his pants down circa 09:20 when Trap arrived way ahead of schedule, coming in at the absolute perfect angle and controlling his army to perfection to melt the Swarm under his feet, securing the win out of nowhere in the process.

It was summed up pretty nicely by the end on the broadcast - Bizzaro World, Upset Central Station.

• Match of the Night - the safest choice here would be M1, where lots of people enjoyed G1 and then by G2 it was Maru finally putting on some pressure and looking a lot more like himself & the closer in G3 where Solar's proactive play was something else; I do feel like we also have to give Dream a shoutout, though, for that Mech masterclass in G2 of the Winners' match, definitely showed us how it's done while down on match point.

Finally, here are some of my closing thoughts on each player:

• Dream has now won two Groups in a row, when do we stop saying it's an upset? I think it was pretty fair to consider him outgunned heading into tonight, I certainly don't believe anyone honestly expected him to overcome both Trap and Maru back to back - which funnily enough, he didn't have to do - nevertheless the level of play he showed was incredibly solid, the future is definitely looking bright for Dream if he can keep this level up while everyone around him falters.

• Trap adds another victory to the coin-flip history he shares with Maru and then overcomes his nemesis in Solar to make up for that opening match, not bad considering he could have easily been eliminated first tonight. That said, I think it's borderline impossible to feel confident he'll do much better than last Season beyond this point, the new holes in his PvT this year are getting increasingly more obvious and the progress towards overcoming his PvZ problem feels shaky at the best of times.

• Solar won the only match I didn't think he could tonight and then lost to the other two players as if to spite anyone trying to make rational predictions. I don't know what more we can do for him in that regard, the audience isn't even allowed in the building, I expected this Zerg to benefit in a Cure-esque way from the current predicament of the GSL but it seems like Solar is Solar, lets put it that way. It's a shame to think he's clearly got the skills to reach the next level of your Dark-Rogue-soO trifecta, but when it comes to crunch time Solar is just nowhere to be found as usual.

• Maru looked slow and flawed here, basically felt like his wrists were gone slash he was playing on no sleep or had food poisoning or something. As we each go through the five stages of grief while looking back on his performance here, by far the one match he had no business losing was against his victim, so when he did all bets were off, but even then in the opening map against Trap the game was basically handed to him and he couldn't do anything to win there either. Lets hope this was just a terrible night that'll get lost in history accordingly, because every day Maru isn't showing up at the peak of his abilities is another day where we all lose the chance to enjoy his greatness even more than we already have.

As always, if you think differently or have something interesting to add, feel free to do so in the comments below.

Catch you on Saturday for Group D, where Cure will show if he has what it takes to make it back into the Playoffs after the most successful season of his career, however to do so he'll have to go through a monster former teammate in Rogue, the faded but still willing and able Stats & finally the once upon a time best in Zest.

Thanks as always for reading & see you when I see you! (:

-M

1. Introduction

The 2019 season had mitigated success for the Vikings. They secured the #6 seed in the NFC before pulling a huge upset win in overtime in New Orleans. The offense completely stalled the following week in San Francisco, though.
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The franchise has not gone through a losing season in five years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has really done a good job.
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Can the team take a forward leap and make it further into the playoffs? The team has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Kirk Cousins has received more criticism than praise since signing a huge contract with the Vikings a couple of years ago. Yet, the team posted an 18-13-1 record and Cousins has thrown 56 TD passes versus 16 interceptions. His completion rate has been excellent over those two years: 69.7% (among the best of his career).
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The reprimand concerned more the lack of playoff wins than the level of play itself. He cleared a hurdle by leading his team to a big playoff upset in New Orleans last season, thanks to a 4-year TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in overtime.
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However, he followed it up with a horrific performance in San Francisco. Don’t be misled by his 21-of-29 passes completed during the game. Minnesota flirted with the postseason record for fewest first downs in a game; they only got 7 and totaled 147 yards of offense.
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Still, based on PFF grades, 2019 was Cousins’ best career season. He ranked as the #6 QB in the league with an 84.1 mark.
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Sean Mannion will once again back up Cousins. He’s clearly not the best #2 quarterback in the league. Cousins has been extremely durable throughout his career, and the Vikes hope it stays that way.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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In my 2019 NFC North preview, I mentioned how I believed Dalvin Cook was one of the most underrated players in the league. He had only rushed for 354 and 615 yards in his first two seasons, but he had passed my eye test. I knew that, barring injuries, he would breakout as one of the top backs in the league.
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He did enjoy a nice 2020 season with 1,135 rushing yards and 519 receiving yards, while racking up 13 touchdowns.
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Two things raise some concerns about him, though. First, his lengthy injury history. He seems to get nicked up often.
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Secondly, his play tailed off quite a bit towards the end of the season. During the first eight games of the season, he rushed 156 times for 823 yards, which was good for a lofty 5.3 average. However, over his final six meetings (including the playoffs) he carried the ball 84 times for 256 yards, a meager 3.0 average.
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After being selected in the 3rd round of the draft out of Boise State, Alexander Mattison showed promise in his first year as a pro. He had 100 rushing attempts for 462 yards, a nice 4.6 yards-per-carry average. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Cook goes down.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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The Vikings had one of the most talented WR duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They caught 113 and 102 passes, respectively, during the 2018 season. Those figures regressed to 30 and 63 last year. Thielen only played 10 games, but he was still on pace for just 48 receptions.
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What was the problem? In 2018, Minnesota had the 6th-highest number of passing attempts. In 2019, that rank dropped to 30th !
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That being said, the team traded Diggs to Buffalo. He expressed frustration with Cousins and they didn’t seem to be on the same page.
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In order to compensate for that loss, GM Rick Spielman signed Tajae Sharpe, formerly of the Titans. He will fight for the #2 role opposite Thielen. The former fifth-rounder posted decent numbers in his first three years in the league. He used to be a starter, but his playing time got cut after Tennessee drafted A.J. Brown and signed Adam Humphries. Sharpe seems to be destined to be a #2 or #3 receiver in the NFL.
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The team also has high hopes for first-round rookie Justin Jefferson. He was very productive at LSU and he ranked second in 15+ yard receptions over the last two seasons (only Jerry Jeudy beat him). He wasn’t spectacular as an outside target, but he had a monster season playing in the slot last year. He’s great with contested catches and has a good shot to become an immediate starter.
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Bisi Johnson took advantage of Chad Beebe’s injury to grab the number three role last year. The 7th round rookie posted a 31-294-3 stat line, which was “okay”, but he seems like a long shot to become a true starter.
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The team finally pulled the plug on the failed Laquon Treadwell experiment. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being the #23 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He signed a contract with the Falcons in the offseason.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Kyle Rudolph – Irv Smith combo is very solid.
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Both guys played all 16 games with Rudolph recording slightly better numbers. He hauled in 39 passes for 367 yards and 6 TDs, while Smith’s numbers were 36-311-2.
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Rudolph made some highlight reel catches, his most important one being the game-winning TD catch in overtime in New Orleans. Smith is expected to expand his role in the offense with one year of experience under his belt and Diggs off the team. He showed very nice potential despite the Vikings relying very often on the running game.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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This unit allowed the sixth-fewest sacks in the league, but that wasn’t necessarily a great accomplishment given the offense ran the ball so often.
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Overall, this is an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line. Here is a rundown of each starter’s PFF rankings:

• Garrett Bradbury, 30th out of 37 centers;
• Brian O’Neill, 33rd out of 81 tackles;
• Riley Reiff, 38th out of 81 tackles;
• Pat Elflein, 39th out of 81 guards;
• Josh Kline, 26th out of 81 guards.

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Bradbury and O’Neill were the youngest guys as first- and second-year players. It’s worth noting that O’Neill definitely improved the quality of his play from year one to year two.
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Riley Reiff was a candidate for release considering his big contract, which is not in sync with his on-field performance. He’s clearly not among the top left tackles in the league.
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After an atrocious 2018 season, Pat Elflein did better last year. He is in his mid-twenties and should remain an adequate starter (albeit, not a great one).
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Josh Kline was let go by the Vikings, possibly because of cap reasons and the fact he was now on the wrong side of 30. Still, this is a bit of a surprising move given the team’s lack of depth.
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2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia or career journeyman Dakota Dozier will be fighting for Kline’s spot.
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The Vikings selected a late riser in the second round of this year’s draft: Ezra Cleveland. He played over 95% of the snaps in three years with Boise State. He is mobile and very athletic. He seems like Riley Reiff’s heir apparent (who seems likely to be released next offseason).
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The starting lineup remains fairly intact with 9-of-11 starters returning.
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The QB, RB and TE positions should provide similar production in 2020.
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The WR position took a hit with the loss of Stefon Diggs, a very dangerous playmaker. He was among the best in contested catches. Acquiring a borderline starter like Tajae Sharpe won’t be enough to replace him. Let’s hope rookie Justin Jefferson can have an impact right away.
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On the offensive line, Bradbury and O’Neill may take a leap given their young age. However, Josh Kline leaving the team is hardly good news.
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Accordingly, I expect Minnesota’s offense to fall a little bit.
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Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left the team to take over as Cleveland’s head coach, but the system will remain the same under new OC Gary Kubiak. The latter oversaw the offense from the coaches box last year, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult.
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Last year, the Vikings offense scored the eight-most points in the league, and I predict this year’s ranking to lie between the 10th and 16th spot.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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The best interior defender for the Vikings was clearly Linval Joseph. Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Vikings had to release him.
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A few days later, Minnesota signed Michael Pierce. The former Raven performed at a very similar level as Joseph, but he is four years younger. The run-stuffing nose tackle’s acquisition has to be viewed as a bit of a positive for the Vikings defense.
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The other guys seeing time on the interior of the defensive line aren’t very good. Both Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson finished way below-average according to the PFF grading system.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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The Vikings had one of the most fearsome DE duo with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. They racked up 14.5 and 8 sacks, respectively.
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Casual fans probably know who Danielle Hunter is. But they don’t realize how good he is; he doesn’t get enough credit, possibly due to playing in a smaller market.
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If you look at the numbers, he’s been a beast. Did you know he became the youngest player in NFL history to reach the 50-sack mark? He picked up 14.5 sacks in each of the past two years, and he has averaged 10.9 over his five-year career. The former LSU player was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft!
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Everson Griffen is getting older at 32 years old. At the time of writing, he has yet to sign with a team. He is very likely to find a suitor, but all signs point towards him leaving Minnesota. That will leave a void for sure.
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Griffen has averaged 8.8 sacks during the last eight seasons. He has spent his entire 10-year career with the Vikings and has missed very few games. He’s a true warrior.
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So, who will take Griffen’s spot? Stephen Weatherly was a key reserve for the team last year, but he left for Carolina. Is Ifeadi Odenigbo ready to pick up the slack? He came out of nowhere to record seven sacks last year!
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After being chosen in the 7th round of the 2017 draft, Odenigbo barely played any snaps in his first two seasons. I seriously doubt he can be the long-term answer and I believe last year’s seven sacks were an outlier.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Eric Kendricks had one of the most improbable seasons last year. His PFF marks had varied between 59 and 69 since entering the league five years ago. Then, he earned a jaw-dropping 90.1 grade in 2019, which put him as the second-best linebacker in the entire league. He didn’t do much as a pass rusher, but he was great defending the run and covering people.
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Anthony Barr had a subpar year and finished as a below-average LB according to ProFootballFocus. He’s been a steady producer, but his grades have been all over the place during his six-year career. He received his second-lowest mark in 2019.
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Eric Wilson has been a reserve player since joining the league in 2017. He’ll likely have a similar role in the upcoming season. He did show adequate skills last year.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Wow, a lot of shuffling has taken place with Minnesota’s secondary during the offseason.
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Both 2019 starters, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, are gone to other teams. And their primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, also signed with another squad. Ouch.
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Waynes never played at the level of a #11 overall pick, but he yielded steady play during his five-year stint with the Vikings. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year, and he repeatedly finished slightly above-average among all CBs. He’s the guy the team will miss the most.
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Let’s face the reality: Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst corners in the league last year. His play took a big hit in 2018, and things got even worse in 2019. He really needed a chance of scenery; perhaps joining the Colts will rejuvenate his career.
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As for Mackensie Alexander, I feel like the team should have tried harder to keep him. His first two seasons were difficult after getting drafted in the 2nd round out of Clemson, but his last couple of years were much more promising. He could have rendered some valuable services to a team that had just lost its two starters.
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The door is now wide open for 2018 first-rounder Mike Hughes. The jury is still out on whether he can assume a starting role in the NFL, but I guess we’ll find out very soon.
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The Vikings decided to address the glaring hole at the position by selecting Jeff Gladney with the 31st overall pick in this year’s draft. Gladney is a sound tackler and a good blitzer too.
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He was a four-year starter out of TCU, where he was one of just two players with at least 15 passes defended in each of the past two years. However, he has a lengthy injury history.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Harrison Smith is a perennial All-Pro safety. He’s been racking up tackles and interceptions throughout his eight-year tenure in the NFL. Averaging close to 3 picks per season over such a long span is impressive.
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Talk about defying the odds. Anthony Harris went undrafted five years ago. Fast-forward to today, and he’s received 89.0 and 91.1 grades from PFF the last two seasons. He finished as the top safety in the NFL out of 87 qualifiers.
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In other words, the Vikings may have the best safety duo in the NFL. The only bad news is they lost depth when both Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse left via free agency.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce is a small gain for this Vikings defense, in my opinion. That’s about it for the good news for this unit.
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Stud pass rusher Everson Griffen seems destined to leave the team, and one of their main backups, Stephen Weatherly signed with the Panthers.
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At linebacker, I don’t mean to be a party pooper, but Kendricks is very unlikely to match his 2019 performance. He had been an average LB for four years; I doubt the switch suddenly went on and that he will keep being a top 5 linebacker in the NFL.
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Last year’s top three CBs are gone, as well as two backups at the safety position. As of now, the team hasn’t signed any free agent to replace them. This is not a surprise, considering the bad cap situation the team is in. They drafted a few guys, including Jeff Gladney late in the first round, but their impact remains to be seen.
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Many new faces on defense, plus a drop in talent invariably equals a big downgrade. The team allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year; they’ll be lucky if they finish above-average in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Vikings' 16 games):
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OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 72%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +31.5%

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UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 28%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -33.1%

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Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Vikings won more or less than 8.5 games.

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Here are the results:
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OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 63.1%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +15.2%

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UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 36.9%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -11.8%

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Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Vikings’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: -6 vs ATL, -9 vs CAR, -4 vs CHI, -2.5 vs DAL, -7 vs DET, -3 vs GB, -11.5 vs JAX, -3.5 vs TEN.
• ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, +3 @ GB, 0 @ HOU, +2 @ IND, +5.5 @ NO, +3 @ SEA, +3 @ TB.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Tomorrow I'll preview the Dallas Cowboys!
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Professor MJ